With Christmas day this Saturday, some early data could be foreshadowing a better-than-expected holiday retail season.

In October the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted a new high holiday spending season with sales rising to between 8.5% and 10.5% from last year.

However, on Dec. 3 the NRF’s group economist Jack Kleinhenz said spending from November to December could increase as much as 11.5% over the same year ago period with total sales hitting an all-time high of between $834.4 and $859 billion – excluding spending at auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Deloitte also forecast significantly higher preliminary holiday retail and distribution projections estimating growth of 7% to 9% totaling $1.28 to $1.3 trillion between November and January 2022.

This update was in excess of Deloitte’s 1% to 1.5% projection for 2020 and the U.S. Census Bureau’s November 2020 to January 2021 sales growth estimate of 5.8% to $1.19 trillion with similar seasonal adjustments. Deloitte also predicted e-commerce sales growing by 11% to 15% year over year to between $210 and $218 billion, as reported by Supermarket News in November.

Supply chain issues remain, but as Christmas Day approaches, North Bay retailers say proactive shoppers and businesses which ordered early may have checked the Grinch from stealing holiday retail sales.

“Everyone could be selling more than they are now if they had more stock on hand. The Village at Corte Madera has seen a return to 102% of pre-COVID foot traffic. While large customers can sometimes influence upstream production decisions, small scale firms do not have much power when it comes to who gets what products and how much in times like these,” Marin Economic Forum CEO Mike Blakeley said.

Blakeley said many businesses worked early on to secure more inventory to protect against shortages as the critical Christmas season progressed. Longer term, a recent survey showed that a number of Marin business owners believe it will take from 6 to 12 months to fully recover sales revenues lost during the height of the pandemic, while some say only about 1 to 3 months.

Traditional malls such as Santa Rosa Plaza have been hit especially hard by store closures, though outdoor shopping centers that focus on local retailers such as Montgomery Village in Santa Rosa and the Barlow in Sebastopol have fared better despite issues surrounding the ability to obtain merchandise.

A number of shortages are due in part to supply chain problems, evidenced by the number of container ships waiting at anchor off shore, a lack of dock space, with not enough longshore men to unload them and truck drivers to deliver the goods.

Impact has been hit and miss. For example, some donut shops are closed, lacking the special flour mix for donuts coming from Asia. Signs posted on pastry shelves and cabinets at Safeway in Windsor in Sonoma County also tell consumers of the temporary donut shortage.

For independent restauranteurs – especially those offering take-out -- carryout containers and small plastic or paper one and two ounce mini-cups used to hold salad dressing and sauces are in short supply. Adequate quantities of Solo cups, pizza boxes, bulk food containers and napkins have also declined at restaurant supply houses from time to time.

Smart and Final Extension employees in San Rafael who did not wish to be identified because they were not authorized to speak said that their company is in a wait-and-see mode and they are not expecting 100% order fulfilment for products sourced overseas. Domestic deliveries have been more consistent.

Also in Marin, Ray Kristof, owner of Terrestra home décor based in Mill Valley, offering dinnerware, hand-crafted elegant gifts, jewelry and fine leather goods, said in-store customer traffic is definitely up this year.

“We’re seeing many more customers looking for hand-crafted gifts, along with those seeking last-minute items and instant gift cards that recipients can receive via email. There are more men than women in this category, since women have been planning weeks and months ahead on what to buy before supplies ran out.”

Down the street at Café Del Soul in Mill Valley, known for its drive-in, take-out cuisine, co-owners Reggie Hunter and China Honey, confirmed that the supply chain has not been reliable and constant for their business.

“It is an always changing situation that seems to quickly move from one item to another that is out of stock. We have experienced days when juices were not available along with plant-based milk products, tofu, and yogurt. In addition, there has been a notable lack of compostable cups and containers available through our suppliers,” Hunter said.

Unlike many businesses now posting “We’re Hiring” signs on their doors, Hunter said, “We have been blessed to have a loyal, dedicated team so this has not been a problem.

When wineries reopened for tastings and tourism, pent up demand saw large numbers of wine lovers wanting to enjoy more personal experiences and the ability to take home their favorite vintages and wine accessories with an eye toward purchasing holiday gifts for friends, family and business associates.

“Our sales numbers for our line of special wine suitcases with inflatable bottle protectors in three sizes for 12, 8 and 5 bottles are exceeding any prior year-to-date sales totals,” according to Ryan Nergarrd, who together with Ron Sharman co-own Napa-based Fly With Wine.

With Christmas day this Saturday, some early data could be foreshadowing a better-than-expected holiday retail season.

In October the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted a new high holiday spending season with sales rising to between 8.5% and 10.5% from last year.

However, on Dec. 3 the NRF’s group economist Jack Kleinhenz said spending from November to December could increase as much as 11.5% over the same year ago period with total sales hitting an all-time high of between $834.4 and $859 billion – excluding spending at auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Deloitte also forecast significantly higher preliminary holiday retail and distribution projections estimating growth of 7% to 9% totaling $1.28 to $1.3 trillion between November and January 2022.

This update was in excess of Deloitte’s 1% to 1.5% projection for 2020 and the U.S. Census Bureau’s November 2020 to January 2021 sales growth estimate of 5.8% to $1.19 trillion with similar seasonal adjustments. Deloitte also predicted e-commerce sales growing by 11% to 15% year over year to between $210 and $218 billion, as reported by Supermarket News in November.

“During the pandemic, demand for our products skyrocketed for both local weekend outings or for trips by air to other states with wine as part of checked baggage -- with typically no limit if travelers abide by TSA rules (but not as part of carry-on luggage). This is a great gift for wine lovers. These cases are customized with the brand logo of some 300 wineries now offering our products.”

Fly With Wine cases are made in China and company’s owners made sure they stocked up far in advance of the holidays to have ample domestic inventory on hand for Christmas shoppers.

Nergarrd said his firm is also meeting demand for its line of Gabriel-Glas single-size wine glasses that replace having to purchase a dozen or more different shaped glasses to go with each varietal at a time when glass supplies may also be limited.

“There is a significant trend building toward having a common one-size glass saving restaurants money on multiple purchases and inventory storage space,” he added.

Bernie Schwartz, owner of California Luggage on 4th Street in Santa Rosa, says more people have travel on their minds and that’s boosted sales. “Travel has been on people’s minds for quite a while now. And with increased vaccinations, there’s more interest and more possibilities, although international travel is still lagging, but is on the horizon. There has been a steady climb in our business throughout the year. Starting in August, we started beating 2019 (numbers).”

When most people think of Christmas, gifts for newborns and children often top the list. According to Jennifer Nogano, manager of Cupcake – a baby and children’s clothing store with locations at 641 4th Street in Santa Rosa and at 1300 1st Street in Napa owned by Jenny Romeyn – cited a 40% increase in sales this year over last.

“Tourists and other visitors to our city like gift clothing that says ‘Napa’,” said Nogano. “We derive a lot of our items from overseas sources and have had our share of delays in getting shipments on time, including clothing, gifts and accessories for newborns to age 10. We also carry a variety of stocking stuffers and early readers – like Jelly Cat – books paired with stuffed animals. People really love books these days.”

Books have been selling very well at major North Bay stores such as Copperfield Books, located in Healdsburg, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, Calistoga and six other Bay Area cities, Joanne Vosmek at the San Rafael store, said last year there was a lot of mail order business, but not in 2021.

“More people have been coming in despite the rain. We’ve also seen the anxiety of customers last year change to a sweet, positive outlook with much more concern about buying local.”

Elaine Petrocelli, owner of Book Passage stores in Corte Madera and San Francisco, said many new titles are coming in that publishers held off producing in 2020. Authors who stayed home to write during the lockdown have completed their works that are now available. She said grandmothers are buying books for their grandchildren and having Zoom meetings with them to talk about what they are reading.

“Our business results are way up -- 40% better than a year or so ago -- but still not fully back to 2019 levels.”

Book Passage has many high demand books signed by authors, along with more hardbacks and audio books (LibroFM) – but Petrocelli said fewer people are spending a lot of time on E-books. She also noted a big increase in corporate sales with tech firms and universities buying books as gifts for employees.

The Heebe Jeeb General Store toy and gift shop in downtown Petaluma, owned by Drew Washer, has seen a 30% jump in sales over comparable past years. Hot sellers this year include whoopee cushions and squeezable balls designed to relieve stress used as stocking stuffers and novelty gifts.

For Lemondrops, a popular children’s boutique and toy shop at 1030 Clinton Street in Napa, sales have also been up in 2021 compared with last year, but the company is still striving to return to its pre-Covid sales level.

“We moved our store from Yountville to Napa in January 2020 just as the pandemic was beginning to have worldwide impact,” said Owner Willa Gulbransen. “With stay-at-home orders and public health restrictions more people pivoted to online ordering while also wanting to spend more locally. We streamlined our e-commerce ordering system to keep pace with this trend. At the same time, I have never seen such shortages and delays in my lifetime.”

For most customers, shipping packages to family and friends was a concern, but many started this process earlier in 2021 than in prior years with a final deadline set for Dec. 18 for gifts to arrive before Christmas, according to Gulbransen.

“We are not shipping heavy metal and wood items, but rather toys and gifts you don’t find at big box stores. Toys include puzzles, sticker play sets, magnetic pretend play boards, activity sets, collector cases, rainbow mini scratch art notes, glitter boards, Brainquest cards, squish fast food and other safe, age-appropriate items.

As with most deliveries, getting packages to destinations over the last mile from distribution centers and Post Offices to homes is a main concern,” Gulbransen observed.

This year the U.S. Postal System estimates that between 850 million and 950 million packages are expected to be shipped this holiday season from Thanksgiving through the New Year’s Day. The total number of letters, cards and packages processed and delivered is estimated to be more than 12 billion, down from 13 billion in 2020.

--The Press Democrat contributed to this report.